A new low-cost technique improves weather forecasts across the world

Computer-generated forecasts divide the earth's surface into gridboxes, each now ~25% of the size of London, and predict one value per gridbox. If weather varies markedly within a gridbox forecasts for specific sites inevitably fail. A completely new statistical post-processing method, using ensemble forecasts as input, anticipates two gridbox-weather-dependant factors: degree of variation in each gridbox, and bias on the gridbox scale. Globally, skill improves substantially; for extreme rainfall, for example, useful forecasts extend 5 days ahead. Without post-processing this limit is < 1 day. Relative to historical forecasting advances this constitutes ground-breaking progress. The key drivers, incorporated during calibration, are meteorological understanding and abandoning classical notions that only local data be used. Instead we simply recognise that "showers are showers, wherever they occur worldwide" which delivers a huge increase in calibration dataset size. Numerous multi-faceted applications include improved flash flood warnings, physics-related insights into model weaknesses and global pointwise re-analyses.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures. Submitted to Natur

A comparison of the sensory and rheological properties of different cellulosic fibres for food

The impact of different cellulosic microstructures formed by highly entangled fibre networks 8 were studied for food applications as dietary fibre. This paper reports the impact of microstructure on the rheological and sensory behaviour of the aqueous suspensions of particulate and fibrillated forms of softwood cellulosic fibres, and were compared with citrus fibre. An aqueous suspension of cellulosic fibres shows stable viscoelastic gel-like behaviour as a function of frequency. The particulate form of cellulosic fibres showed lowest shear viscosity as compared to the entangled network system at comparable concentrations. To provide further insight into the relationship between the structure of cellulosic fibre systems and perception of salt taste in aqueous suspensions of softwood cellulosic fibres (fibrillated and particulate form) and citrus fibres with matched shear viscosities were studied. A hypothesis to explain why softwood cellulosic fibre (CTE) with entangled network structure prolongs the taste perception is presented

The three-dimensional structure of fronts in mid-latitude weather systems in numerical weather prediction models

Atmospheric fronts are a widely used conceptual model in meteorology, most encountered as two-dimensional (2-D) front lines on surface analysis charts. The three-dimensional (3-D) dynamical structure of fronts has been studied in the literature by means of “standard” 2-D maps and cross-sections and is commonly sketched in 3-D illustrations of idealized weather systems in atmospheric science textbooks. However, only recently has the feasibility of the objective detection and visual analysis of 3-D frontal structures and their dynamics within numerical weather prediction (NWP) data been proposed, and such approaches are not yet widely known in the atmospheric science community. In this article, we investigate the benefit of objective 3-D front detection for case studies of extra-tropical cyclones and for comparison of frontal structures between different NWP models. We build on a recent gradient-based detection approach, combined with modern 3-D interactive visual analysis techniques, and adapt it to handle data from state-of-the-art NWP models including those run at convection-permitting kilometre-scale resolution. The parameters of the detection method (including data smoothing and threshold parameters) are evaluated to yield physically meaningful structures. We illustrate the benefit of the method by presenting two case studies of frontal dynamics within mid-latitude cyclones. Examples include joint interactive visual analysis of 3-D fronts and warm conveyor belt (WCB) trajectories, as well as identification of the 3-D frontal structures characterizing the different stages of a Shapiro–Keyser cyclogenesis event. The 3-D frontal structures show agreement with 2-D fronts from surface analysis charts and augment the surface charts by providing additional pertinent information in the vertical dimension. A second application illustrates the relation between convection and 3-D cold-front structure by comparing data from simulations with parameterized and explicit convection. Finally, we consider “secondary fronts” that commonly appear in UK Met Office surface analysis charts. Examination of a case study shows that for this event the secondary front is not a temperature-dominated but a humidity-dominated feature. We argue that the presented approach has great potential to be beneficial for more complex studies of atmospheric dynamics and for operational weather forecasting

Apoptosis-Specific Protein (ASP) Identified in Apoptotic Xenopus Thymus Tumor Cells

A novel apoptosis-specific protein (ASP) has recently been identified in the cytoplasm of apoptotic mammalian cells. This paper investigates whether ASP is found in Xenopus thymus tumor-derived lymphoid cell lines undergoing apoptosis and also in apoptotic, nontransformed splenocytes. Cultured Xenopus tumor lymphoid cells induced to undergo, apoptosis by serum deprivation or treatment with the calcium ionophore, ionomycin, displayed altered morphology typical of apoptotic cells, as judged by flow cytometric light-scatter characteristics and by fluorescence microscopy of acridine-orange-stained cells. Flow cytometry of permeabilized cells and fluorescence microscopy of acetone-fixed cytospins revealed that apoptotic Xenopus tumor cells, especially those displaying loss or condensation of DNA, displayed increased expression of epitopes recognized by a rabbit polyclonal antibody against ASP. Flow cytometry confirmed that ASP is also expressed in splenocytes induced to apoptose by culture in ionomycin or following concanavalin A stimulation. No increased expression of ASP was seen when lymphoid tumor cells or splenocytes were induced into necrosis by overdose with the antifungal agent amphotericin B. Western blotting with antibody against ASP identified the emergence of several protein bands in cell lysates from apoptotic, but not necrotic, Xenopus tumor cells. The new and simple methodology for identifying apoptotic cells described here is likely to be of value to those studying immune system development and associated programmed cell death in Xenopus

The Kondo Dynamics of YbIn(1-x)AgxCu4

We present an infrared/optical study of the dynamics of the strongly correlated electron system YbIn(1-x)AgxCu4 as a function of doping and temperature for x ranging from 0 to 1, and T between 20 and 300 K. This study reveals information about the unusual phase transition as well as the phases themselves. Scaling relations emerge from the data and are investigated in detail using a periodic Anderson model based calculation. We also provide a picture in which to view both the low and high-energy x-dependent features of the infrared data, including identification of high energy, temperature dependent features.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figures, submitted Phys. Rev.

The TIGGE project and its achievements

TIGGE was a major component of the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) research program, whose aim is to accelerate improvements in forecasting high-impact weather. By providing ensemble prediction data from leading operational forecast centers, TIGGE has enhanced collaboration between the research and operational meteorological communities and enabled research studies on a wide range of topics. The paper covers the objective evaluation of the TIGGE data. For a range of forecast parameters, it is shown to be beneficial to combine ensembles from several data providers in a Multi-model Grand Ensemble. Alternative methods to correct systematic errors, including the use of reforecast data, are also discussed. TIGGE data have been used for a range of research studies on predictability and dynamical processes. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems in the world, and are a focus of multi-model ensemble research. Their extra-tropical transition also has a major impact on skill of mid-latitude forecasts. We also review how TIGGE has added to our understanding of the dynamics of extra-tropical cyclones and storm tracks. Although TIGGE is a research project, it has proved invaluable for the development of products for future operational forecasting. Examples include the forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flood prediction through coupling hydrological models to ensembles. Finally the paper considers the legacy of TIGGE. We discuss the priorities and key issues in predictability and ensemble forecasting, including the new opportunities of convective-scale ensembles, links with ensemble data assimilation methods, and extension of the range of useful forecast skill

The Italian open data meteorological portal: MISTRAL

AbstractAt the national level, in Italy, observational and forecast data are collected by various public bodies and are often kept in various small, heterogeneous and non‐interoperable repositories, released under different licenses, thus limiting the usability for external users. In this context, MISTRAL (the Meteo Italian SupercompuTing PoRtAL) was launched as the first Italian meteorological open data portal, with the aim of promoting the reuse of meteorological data sets available at national level coverage. The MISTRAL portal provides (and archives) meteorological data from various observation networks, both public and private, and forecast data that are generated and post‐processed within the Consortium for Small‐scale Modeling‐Limited Area Model Italia (COSMO‐LAMI) agreement using high performance computing (HPC) facilities. Also incorporated is the Italy Flash Flood use case, implemented with the collaboration of European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which exploits cutting edge advances in HPC‐based post‐processing of ensemble precipitation forecasts, for different model resolutions, and applies those to deliver novel blended‐resolution forecasts specifically for Italy. Finally, in addition to providing architectures for the acquisition and display of observational data, MISTRAL also delivers an interactive system for visualizing forecast data of different resolutions as superimposed multi‐layer maps

A probable case of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) acquired in England, July 2019

The United Kingdom (UK) has thus far been considered to be free from tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), yet in July 2019, a German infant developed serologically diagnosed TBE following a tick bite in southern England. This first report of a probable human case together with recent findings of TBE virus in ticks in foci in England suggest that TBE may be acquired in parts of England and should be considered in patients with aetiologically-unexplained neurological manifestations.Peer Reviewe

IMILAST: a community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset—the period 1989–2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases

Antibody correlates of protection from SARS-CoV-2 reinfection prior to vaccination : a nested case-control within the SIREN study

Funding: This study was supported by the U.K. Health Security Agency, the U.K. Department of Health and Social Care (with contributions from the governments in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland), the National Institute for Health Research, and grant from the UK Medical Research Council (grant number MR/W02067X/1). This work was supported by the Francis Crick Institute which receives its core funding from Cancer Research UK (CC2087, CC1283), the UK Medical Research Council (CC2087, CC1283), and the Wellcome Trust (CC2087, CC1283).Objectives To investigate serological differences between SARS-CoV-2 reinfection cases and contemporary controls, to identify antibody correlates of protection against reinfection. Methods We performed a case-control study, comparing reinfection cases with singly infected individuals pre-vaccination, matched by gender, age, region and timing of first infection. Serum samples were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike (anti-S), anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (anti-N), live virus microneutralisation (LV-N) and pseudovirus microneutralisation (PV-N). Results were analysed using fixed effect linear regression and fitted into conditional logistic regression models. Results We identified 23 cases and 92 controls. First infections occurred before November 2020; reinfections occurred before February 2021, pre-vaccination. Anti-S levels, LV-N and PV-N titres were significantly lower among cases; no difference was found for anti-N levels. Increasing anti-S levels were associated with reduced risk of reinfection (OR 0·63, CI 0·47-0·85), but no association for anti-N levels (OR 0·88, CI 0·73-1·05). Titres >40 were correlated with protection against reinfection for LV-N Wuhan (OR 0·02, CI 0·001–0·31) and LV-N Alpha (OR 0·07, CI 0·009–0·62). For PV-N, titres >100 were associated with protection against Wuhan (OR 0·14, CI 0·03–0·64) and Alpha (0·06, CI 0·008–0·40). Conclusions Before vaccination, protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was directly correlated with anti-S levels, PV-N and LV-N titres, but not with anti-N levels. Detectable LV-N titres were sufficient for protection, whilst PV-N titres >100 were required for a protective effect. Trial registration number ISRCTN11041050Publisher PDFPeer reviewe